In the UK total deaths dropped below the five year average last may. looking at non covid deaths, they have been below the 5 year average since last november, such that about 50% of reported UK covid deaths since then have been cancelled out in an estimate of excess deaths. overall about 40% of official Uk covid deaths are eliminated using an excess deaths measure. We have over reporting of covid deaths.where your point fails is that not only dont we know the full extent of people sick with covid, we also dont know the full death rates of covid since theres under-reporting for that as well, clearly shown in the stats for excess deaths.
The problem is that anyone who has covid and dies is likely to become a covid death statistic whether covid really contributed to that death. Thats obvious if you look at the government preferred measure 'death within 28 days of a positive test'. less obvious, it also applies to death certificate reports, where if there is any mention on the certificate of a covid contribution then it counts as a covid death. Is it realistic to count someone really dying from terminal cancer as a covid death because they also had covid at the time?
So..maybe some places covid deaths are being missed, but clearly they are also being over stated in others.
i dont. There are no reliable statistics on number of people exposed to covid. By which i mean people who have received a dose of covid which you would have expected to cause an infection, because it would have been enough in many who get ill. All the figures I talk about are population wide death rates. In a typical unrestricted covid outbreak most people show no signs of illness. It dies out while apparently only affecting a small percentage of the population. Any attempt to estimate the death rate from an illness must count the total who died in the whole population, because diseases always die out before seemingly affecting a significant proportion. Which is much higher for covid than many diseases. And so typically in the west a covid wave has killed 0.1% of the poulation before dying out. In pacific countries its more like 0.01%. In the current delta wave in the Uk its more like 0.01%, with the benefit of vaccination.so where do you get 0.01% of people sick that die?
This suspiciously suggests pacific nations behaved as if they had already had the vaccine at outset.
We dont know what proportion of people in the Uk susceptible to covid death had already died by the time of the kent wave peak. Death rate was already down compared to excess deaths. We would have expected the delta wave to have even lower death rate without even one person being vaccinated.
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