Chanyeol and Irene scandals were very different. Furthermore, the way the company handled Lucas' situation was extremely telling vs literally any scandals they have ever faced.
SM tends to twist and lie through any scandal, and with him they straight up made him apologize and then had a pretty damning apology themselves. Notice how for Chanyeol they denied from the start and sued the friend of the ex into oblivion, but never even brought up the actual ex again.
Irene got literally caught on a recording, and SM didnt announce anything until after they met with the stylist. And that case involved a grown adult who herself asked for an apology and got it, so in the end that was resolved in a different manner.
Take for instance Yunho, he was allegedly found in an illegal sex club and allegedly ran away from police, 6 months later SM acts like he has been cleared and done time for Covid violations lmao
They are experts at obfuscating the "truth" and salvaging their idols from literally anything.
So yea we can speculate based on the prior handling of controversies. Furthermore, he was removed from the SuperM Korean Air Music Video, his music parts were rerecorded by Mark and Kai. He was completely wiped out of anything from the Wayv 3rd Anniversary in a very SNSD kind of way with their ex-members.
Anyway, people keep asking for updates but the handling of his case vs literally anyone else has been very different, hence the speculation.